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Mr. Chidambaram enjoyed great advantages
while presenting this year's budget. The growth rate is
impressive, and by all accounts sustainable in the medium term.
Revenue increase is the highest in recorded history. Fiscal
deficits are at last being contained. Savings rate is almost
one-third of GDP. And the government is politically stable.
Considering these advantages, the FM seems to
have squandered a priceless opportunity to set a new direction,
and give concrete shape to the vision of inclusive growth. There
are no serious errors of commission, but errors of omission are
aplenty. True, there are no new taxes except the 1% additional
surcharge on all taxes for secondary and higher education.
Import duties have been slashed. The emphasis on agriculture is
necessary and justified, but not matched in action.
What are the errors of omission?
First, the actions on agriculture are
inadequate. Focus on seeds, more credit and replenishing ground
water reserves and improving water harvesting is welcome. But
there are other glaring areas which remain unaddressed. Most
farmer suicides pertain to cotton growers. The unfair advantage
to OECD farmers on account of high farm subsidies ought to be
neutralized by increasing import tariff on cotton. The real
challenge of agriculture is establishing market linkage and
creating value addition to agricultural produce to enhance rural
incomes. Credit cooperatives are still under stultifying
government control, and over 60% of farmers have no recourse to
institutional credit. Aggressive measures to restructure and
liberate cooperatives along with cash support are necessary. The
Budget failed to act on all these fronts.
Second, the effort to improve ITI's
infrastructure is welcome. But there are millions of educated
youngsters who lack skills and are unemployed. Despite high
growth rate, employment in organized manufacturing sector
remains stagnant. Even I.T. and other sectors are handicapped
for want of skilled workers. A massive national programme for
skill promotion is vital today. The FM failed to address this
issue of employment and skill promotion.
Third, FM did initiate a modest social
security scheme for the unorganized poor. But it is too modest
to make an impact. 92% of our work force is in unorganized
sector. Out of the nearly 40 crore such workers, FM's proposals
touch only 15 million families, of which 7 million will get
support this year. This is too anaemic an approach to make a
serious impact on the plight of the unorganized workers.
Fourth, while Education allocations have
increased, and school enrolment has improved, outcomes are far
from satisfactory. In healthcare, even allocations are paltry,
still stubbornly remaining below 1% of GDP. And there is no
effort to create new incentive mechanisms to guarantee quality
healthcare to all. As a result, despite rhetoric on social
sector, allocations are insufficient and outcomes are poor. The
Budget failed to address these fundamental issues.
In infrastructure sector, power and urban
transport pose formidable challenges. Power sector net losses
are about Rs. 26,000 cr. per year, and subsidies touch almost Rs.
40,000 crore. Distribution improvement with local participation
is the key. The budget indicates that the government has thrown
up its hands in despair in this vital sector. In urban
transport, low cost, effective choices need to be incentivised
and promoted. No such effort is discernible in the Budget
speech.
Handicrafts sector has been plagued by years
of neglect and decay. Support to a few handloom clusters is
welcome, but insufficient. A national programme of diagnostic
survey of all handicraft clusters, and support by way of credit,
technology, infrastructure, skills and marketing are critical.
If revival of certain handicrafts is unlikely, then promotion of
alternative skills and reemployment are necessary. The Budget
does not explore these options.
There is huge migration to big cities, and
villages are getting depopulated. A concerted effort to promote
in situ urbanization to provide amenities and services
and encourage local migration through market incentives is
necessary. The Budget simply ignores this mounting challenge of
unchecked migration and rise of urban poverty.
The real estate boom has further boosted the
black economy. A comprehensive approach to provide house sites
and housing to urban population, and promote open transactions
to curb the menace of black money is needed. For instance, long
term capital gains tax on land can be significantly reduced. The
FM left this whole sector to realtors and land grabbers,
allowing serious distortion of market prices and continued real
estate bubble which could seriously undermine our economic
gains.
Finally, the Budget did not pay any attention
to the economic aspects of governance challenges. A nation-wide
land survey and digitization of records are needed the police
forces needed to be modernized to meet the growing challenges in
a humane and effective way the court system needs to be
expanded and made accessible. All these need significant
investments and incentives and support to states. The Budget
ignored these sectors while making allocations.
All in all, a great opportunity has been squandered.
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Jayaprakash Narayan |
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National Coordinator |
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